Bill Gates predicts that every family will have ro

Bill Gates predicted that every family will have robots in the future. 30 years ago, Bill Gates resolutely abandoned school and founded Microsoft, becoming a leader in the revolution of personal computer popularization; Today, 30 years later, he predicted that robots would repeat the rise of personal computers. Ignite the "fuse" of the popularity of robots, and this revolution will completely change the lifestyle of this era, just like the personal computer

robots are experiencing the road of "PC style development"

we stand at the node of the times: a new industry is about to rise. A number of groundbreaking new technologies have laid the foundation for the rise of this industry; Several well-known enterprises have provided very professional goods; A large number of new companies have grown rapidly, committed to manufacturing new toys, providing accessories for enthusiasts, and selling various other interesting niche products. However, it is also a highly decentralized and fragmented industry, and there is almost no unified standard or platform. The development projects in this industry are complex and slow, and few achievements can be put into practical application

people can use the above paragraph to describe the computer industry in the mid-1970s, when Paul Allen and I just founded Microsoft. In those days, mainframe computers were bloated and expensive. They were usually used in large companies, government departments and other institutions for background operations to support daily operations

the current development of the robot industry is very similar to that of the computer industry 30 years ago. Today's busy front-line robots on the automobile assembly line are a replica of the large computers of that year. The niche products of the robot industry are also diverse, such as robotic arms to assist doctors in surgery, reconnaissance robots responsible for removing roadside bombs in the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, household robots responsible for sweeping the floor, and many robot toys made by referring to the appearance of people, dogs, and dinosaurs

the challenges facing the robot industry today are also the same as those encountered by the computer industry 30 years ago: robot manufacturing companies do not have unified operating system software, and popular applications are difficult to run on a variety of devices. The standardization of robot hardware has not started, and the programming code used on one robot is almost impossible to play a role on another machine. If you want to develop new robots, you usually have to start from scratch

although there are many difficulties, I have talked about this topic with University researchers, industrialists, enthusiasts and even high school students involved in robotics. Their passion to overcome difficulties and expectations for the future make me recall my own experience. When Paul Allen and I watched the integration of various new technologies, we dreamed that one day, computers would be placed on every desk. Now, I see that the development trend of various technologies has begun to converge into a torrent to promote the advancement of robot technology. I can fully imagine that robots will become a part of our daily life

how far is it from the dream

the dream of making robots has been postponed. It has been thousands of years since the possibility of pores in the sheath due to the effect of moisture (or the moisture surrounding the cushion) was avoided. All kinds of robots are popular in science fiction stories, but it is difficult to distinguish between doors and open windows

the term "robot" was first coined by Czech playwright carelcapek (l890-l938) in 1921 and soon became popular. However, the dream of building humanoid robots has lasted for thousands of years. If it was impossible to measure, in ancient Greek and Roman mythology, the God of smelting began to use gold to make mechanical servants. In the 1st century A.D., heron of Alexander (it is said that this outstanding engineer invented the first steam engine) designed some amazing automatic machines, one of which is said to be able to speak. Another technological wizard, Leonardo da Vinci, has a sketch of making a mechanical knight in his l495 draft. The robot knight can sit and stand, and his hands and feet can move. People think this should be the first design drawing of a humanoid robot

since the space contraction and twists and turns in the past century, many popular science fiction works -- such as Isaac Asimov's novel I, robot (also known as "mechanical public enemy"), the film star wars and the TV series "Star Trek" have appeared one after another, making robots a common role in popular culture

robots are so popular in the science fiction world, which shows that the public also agrees that robots will integrate into our daily life one day, but there is still a long way to go to reach the level of science fiction

it is far more difficult for computers and robots to perceive the surrounding situation and respond quickly and accurately than people expected, which has become one of the reasons for the huge difference between science fiction and reality. However, researchers have gradually found a solution. The increasing popularity of computers with super processing power will solve researchers' problems

in the 1970s, the cost of one megahertz processing capacity exceeded $7000, but today it is only worth a few cents; One megabit of storage capacity has also experienced a similar price collapse. With such cheap computing and storage capabilities, scientists can use a lot of computer resources to kick away the stumbling blocks that prevent robots from entering the real world

another obstacle to the development of robots is the high cost of hardware equipment, such as sensors, motors and servo devices, which are valuable, but the price of these devices is also declining rapidly. Now, robot designers can equip robots with various powerful sensors without spending too much. Based on the rapid development of computer processing capacity and storage capacity, these newly added sensors will make the robot even stronger. Today's robots can undertake some difficult tasks, such as cleaning rooms and assisting in removing roadside bombs. Only a few years ago, robots on the market could not complete these tasks at all

changing times

robots will become external devices controlled by PC. Their appearance may be farther and farther away from our science fiction stories, but it doesn't matter what they look like. What's important is that they bring us no less changes than the impact of PC in the past 30 years

how fast does the robot integrate into our daily life? According to the survey of the international robotics Union, there were about 2million personal robots in the world in 2004, and another 7million robots will be put into operation by 2008. According to the plan of the Ministry of information and communication of South Korea, by 2013, every family in South Korea will have a robot; The Japan robotics Association predicts that by 2025, the "cake" of the global robot industry will reach $50billion a year (now only $5billion)

similar to the situation of the PC industry in the 1970s, it is impossible for us to accurately predict which uses will push this emerging industry into a critical state. However, it seems that robots are likely to show great promise in the work of nursing and accompanying the elderly, and may also help the disabled walk around, and enhance the research concept that soldiers are easy to use, as well as the physical strength and endurance of construction workers and medical staff

the appearance of most robots in the future will certainly be very different from that of C-3PO (the sentimental humanoid robot in Star Wars). In fact, with the increasing popularity of mobile peripherals, we may be more and more confused about what is a robot. The functions of these robots are highly specialized and go deep into thousands of households, but their appearance is very different from those bipedal humanoid machines in science fiction. Maybe we won't call them robots again. However, the name is not important. The important thing is that as the price of these devices gradually decreases to a level that ordinary consumers can afford, they are very likely to have a far-reaching impact on all aspects of human social life, including work, communication, learning and entertainment, no less than the changes brought about by personal computers in the past 30 years